Ten years following the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that polarised the country and unleashed disorder, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially fraught and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue such a time is approaching, and a group called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unity has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or advocates want to engage with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author supports unification or the existing arrangement. Both writes two articles that seek objectivity in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the argument against, marshalling economic and social data, previous instances and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the idea that there might be valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they favour unity but refuse increased taxation or adopting a new flag to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless official who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, justified points, he said. "Somebody will win in this matter and somebody will ultimately lose but each side has has valuable insights to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the debate, stated O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish question."
